Final Kentucky Derby Thoughts...

Before he was scratched due to a throat ailment, Omaha Beach had settled into being the anointed heir apparent to the Winner’s Circle of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Now everything is changed.

The Derby’s of this generation have not been kind to closers like Tacitus on an off track. Look for Maximum Security (Florida Derby winner) and War of Will (Louisiana Derby also ran) to be part of the early pace. Not sure if either one is a Justify (Last year’s Triple Crown winner who went wire to wire in the 2018 Kentucky Derby). The Arkansas Derby is a key race for my belief this year in Omaha Beach.

So, without Omaha Beach in the race, I feel Improbable (Second in the Arkansas Derby) now warrants my selection for Saturday. Game Winner (Santa Anita runner up) has done nothing to diminish his consideration in this race but he has not seemed to make the leap forward Kentucky Derby winners make in the interim between their last race preps and the first Saturday in May. Roadster out finished Game Winner at Santa Anita and looks to have more upside on Saturday. I’ll make Roadster my second choice. As a third selection I will use Code of Honor (runner up in the Florida Derby). He had a troubled trip at Gulfstream Park. His works have been notable and he has at least one good work on an off track.

Something of note on riders for this year, Omaha Beach’s regular rider Mike Smith chose Omaha Beach over Roadster. Watch the news to see if Smith reclaims the mount on Roadster from Florent Geroux. Code of Honor’s rider, John Velazquez, chose this mount over opportunities on Cutting Humor,(winner of the Sunland Derby) and Spinoff (second in the Louisiana Derby).

My choices: Improbable for the win. Roadster, Code of Honor, War of Will for your exotic wager consideration. There are about a half a dozen horses who are close in ability in this race. Way to much risk now for any sizable investment as far as my wagering goes.